I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland. I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported. Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/ Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018 Hey all! I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉 Some history before I head into the future. I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history. In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever. On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015. In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought. The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
Investors buy because the price is less than the value they see in the investment. Speculators buy because they think that someone will pay more in the future than they are paying now.
Investors trade on information (The white paper was really well-written, had a clear technical advantage over other alternatives, and addresses a need that I can understand and value.) Speculators trade on sentiment. (Buy the rumor! Sell the news!)
Investors usually look at the investment and themselves and can describe why they purchase in those terms (ABC-Coin provides (service) that isn’t addressed yet and matches (requirements) for an investment.) Speculators usually describe why they bought something in terms of how other people think (I think that other people think that the price will rise, so I want to get ahead of that.)
Investors don’t necessarily check the price every day. The can, and very often I do, but it isn’t required because fundamentals don’t often change on a dime. Speculators need to be glued to a price feed, because sentiment very often changes on a dime.
Investors like ideas, people, business plans, and market opportunities. Good ones are like Spock. Speculators like trends. They are tribal.
Investors have a longer time horizon than speculators. In cryptoland, the notion of a “longer” time horizon is still laughably small (months) compared to traditional markets, but it certainly isn’t weeks or days or hours, which is whre speculators often live.
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8. I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money. When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it. Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
ETH will still be my core holding. It is the “deepest in the stack” crypto investment that I have. “Deep in the stack” is a programming term that gets at the idea that most software is built on other software. If you just think about your notebook, you have your OS, and programs run on that. But even inside the OS there is a stack. The bottom of your stack is the kernel, and on top of that are the drivers, protocols, and other layers that allow the programs to talk to the OS, the hard drive, the screen, the mouse, your printer, etc. You can change your mouse or printer easily. Changing things deeper in the stack becomes harder and harder. ETH is deep in the crypto stack, so is very hard to dislodge – Around 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap run on top of Ethereum, so getting rid of Ethereum is something that would take a long time to do.
DNT, QTUM, ZRX, and OMG are all, to varying degrees, “deep in the stack” tokens that, once established, will be very hard to dislodge.
That said, I am peeling away some of my holdings into USD right now, because big changes are afoot and they are going to cause market disruptions. I’m going to come right out and admit that this is speculative, but I’m also going to back it up with some non-speculative facts.
The SEC has been sending out hundreds of subpoenas to cryptocurrency organizations over the past 3-4 months. These subpoenas are simply asking for information and nobody has been charged with any crimes or misdoings, but it is clear that the SEC is getting together information so that they can begin to regulate cryptoland. When that happens, other countries will follow, and that means:
Some tokens will be deemed outright scams and people will be prosecuted.
Some tokens will be deemed securities and will be regulated.
Some tokens will not be deemed scams or securities and will continue as they have.
Looking at this, it is clear to me that the tokens that escape prosecution and regulation should do better, but the short-term impact will be brutal and ugly. It would not surprise me at all to see a 50% drop in overall market cap within Q1-Q2, with Q1 being more likely.
Cryptoland has always been a bit nuts, but it is more nuts now than I have ever seen it. Back in 2011-2014 it was a freaks-n-geeks show where people were all about the technology and I would sit around for a 3-day weekend installing a *nix VM on my Windows machine so that I could compile the most recent source and run a CUDA SHA-256 routine rather than thrash my CPU. If that doesn’t make sense to you, you wouldn’t have even thought about being involved.
Now, people see Bitcoin advertisements in their Facebook feed and think “I gotta get on the BTC train!” before going to Coinbase and buying some with a credit card. They don’t know anything about crypto, and they are getting eaten alive – It is no coincidence that BTC peaked after the Thanksgiving holidays when people sat around the table and Janice got Uncle Mike and Cousin Bob all excited as she talked about going to Cancun for Christmas because of her crypto winnings. Huge amounts of fiat got transferred from newbies to BTC whales during this period, and once the whales were done, BTC had dropped from $20,000 to $12,000. It’s now back at $15,000, but for people who bought at a higher level, this sucks. As a result many have moved from BTC to ETH, with the single biggest money flow in crypto in December being the BTC à ETH flow. As a result, it’s no coincidence that ETH is at all-time highs now. The thing is, though, that even most people that moved from BTC to ETH really have no idea what they are doing. They are acting on buzzwords and emotion. They are speculators and are going to get crushed.
The stock market is quite high right now, but people are starting to worry that it is too high and that we are going to enter into a period of inflation again. This has caused gold to go up a lot the last quarter and is likely also responsible a bit for the rise in cryptos. If this view is correct, then cryptos stay stronger than if that pressure wasn’t there. If wrong, then cryptos will swing down as money exits cryptoland for more traditional markets.
I am spending most of my time and money on the arbitrage effort. The nice thing about arbitrage is that it works as the markets go up, and it works as the markets go down. When markets are too volatile, however, arbitrage can get very messy and dangerous, with each trade generating a loss instead of a profit, so I am working right now to tune the algorithms to take into account rate-of-change and add in some circuit breaker triggers. Once this is done I will expand those operations.
I am getting much more serious about systems security.
I have a Nano Ledger and recommend that anyone with >$1000 of crypto have one. The Trezor is also supposed to be good, but I haven’t used it.
I will set up a dedicated *nix notebook that is used for nothing except my crypto work. All it takes is one keylogger to get on your PC/Mac and your crypto is gone. What is on your Nano Ledger will be OK, but they will sweep out your exchange account or Coinbase account faster than you can type. A standard Linux installation with Chrome and nothing else is as about as secure as you can get in the civilian world.
If you don’t use LastPass or a similar password manager yet, you need to do that. Your password to LastPass should be at least 16 characters long and should not have a recognizable English word in it. If you think that “Iluvu4evah” is a secure password, you’re wrong.
Hackers know that “4”=”for” and “u”=”you”. Writing a script to substitute those in is trivial if they want to write the script, but it’s much easier for them to download one of the many, many programs out there that already do this.
If your password contains any string of numbers from anything that can be associated with you at any time in your life, it is insecure. Take those numbers out of the character count because they are an insignificant barrier to cracking your account.
The good news is that you probably won’t be targeted, but if you ever mention online that you are doing anything significant in crypto, that chance increased enormously.
*Never* talk with *anyone* about how much you have in crypto. You’ll notice that I haven’t here. There is no reason to tell even a family member how much you have unless you are sharing a tax form. Sure, you may trust them, but all it takes if for someone to overhead someone else mention at a party that a relative got into crypto a long time ago and made a bunch of money. That person can also then be subjected to the $10 hack and force you to send all your crypto to them.
Your password to LastPass (Or equivalent.) should look something like this -> 6k0jQMoziX&D#4W8
Yes, it’s a headache. Imagine your headache, though, were you to open your account one day and find all of your money gone.
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way. ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto. iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve. iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments. Happy 2018.
Automated trading. Many platforms allow you to automatically plan your transactions or close your positions after reaching the planned income level, or if you are no longer prepared for risks. Automation of strategies is one of the main advantages of a trader, the development of your trading strategy is best entrusted to professional programmers, for example here - https://nordman-algorithms.com/metatrader-programming/
A large number and variety of market structures. Forex involves exchanges with central banks, financial institutions, transnational corporations, governments, transactional institutions, economic analysts, currency speculators and private investors (such as us).
Liquidity. As we said in the previous paragraphs, the volume of daily foreign exchange transactions around the world is very significant compared to other markets that may have liquidity problems.
Transactions are made at any time of the day. Foreign exchange markets are open 24 hours a day (excluding weekends), as well as during the domestic holidays of each country (foreign markets are open).
Demo account for beginners. Almost all intermediaries or brokers offer a demo account where you can practice and learn exchange methods before you run into a real market.
This is a very safe market. The possibility of fraud is almost impossible, and this makes it very safe, despite being accessible via the Internet. However, when registering with a broker, you need to make sure that it is regulated by someone.
The market is very sensitive. In addition to the advantages that we just mentioned, the foreign exchange market is very responsive to many technical and psychological indicators. It is worth mentioning that many relevant topics affecting the currency are numerous and publicly available.
Small budget. On Forex, you can trade with small budgets, starting with $ 100 or a minimum deposit capital.
Bank leverage. This means that you can increase your capital simply by storing earnings in a bank account.
Zero commissions. There are no commissions for transactions that will be executed on the trading platform. The only costs are compensated by the broker: this is the difference between the purchase price and the sale price of certain units.
The lack of a physical center. All transactions are carried out online. This means that the value of currency pairs depends only on supply and demand, and for this reason it constantly fluctuates.
Disadvantages and risks of Forex But not everything is as beautiful as it seems at first glance, since the Forex market is always associated with a certain risk of capital loss. If you make a wrong prediction, you will lose money. To avoid this, it is necessary to implement a strict money management strategy and trading system. Thus, the risks are not canceled, but at least controlled. There is also another class of very dangerous risk. There are wonderful, reliable, safe, affordable low margin brokers, and there are others whose only purpose is to trick traders. But, fortunately, this type of risk is easy to control: just analyze the broker before registering with him, look at the reviews on the forums and check if the broker is a legally authorized and regulated measure of the European Union. And, most importantly, remember, the Forex market is a very speculative market. Despite the fact that it reflects the financial competitiveness of the economy in the long run, the foreign exchange market is very speculative and volatile. This means that investors must be prepared to withstand strong levels of volatility and conflicting signals.
Reminder: Market-timing questions are banned. Please report them. Threads will be removed.
As the news-reels about Brexit and deals (or lack there-of) continue to roll on, a timely reminder is needed that market timing questions are banned on this subreddit. We have already spent the time and effort to write a wiki article explaining why, which I will copy below for your convenience. For the avoidance of doubt, the following are examples of market timing questions that have been removed in the last few days:
"Should I buy a house pre or post Brexit?"
"Should I be timing the market?"
"Aware that BREXIT is likely to affect house prices, rental revenue and the stock market so is now the best time to change things up?"
" I'm looking at selling my flat and buying a house at some point this year. When do stamp duty changes normally happen? I seem to remember someone saying November but I can't find any mention of it." *(edit: Potentially questionable - see discussion below)
"Is anybody else waiting for the next recession b*efore buying or investing. Id love to hear your thoughts."
This is currently the most-removed topic of discussion. Please continue to be vigilant and report rule-breaking threads. If in doubt, report them anyway and the mods can decide. Thanks!
Since Brexit (and before but less frequently) we have had a slew of questions asking when the right time to exchange money to/from USD/CAD/EUR etc. It is impossible to provide a meaningful answer to this. The exchange rate could get better, or worse, or neither. Nobody has a crystal ball of knows enough to predict the changes an hour, day, month, or year ahead. For this reason, the mods have taken the decision to ban these questions, and threads will be locked and/or removed. Please refer to Rule 2 in the rules. Regular poster pflurklurk summarised the issues concisely:
Essentially you can't predict the rate, so really it is up to your risk tolerance. You can transfer it now to ensure you have the sufficient number of pounds to satisfy your liability, or you can take a gamble (or a mixture of both by making multiple transfers).
Martin Lewis (of Moneysavingexpert fame) had the following to say (see his full blog here) This was before Brexit but the points are all still valid:
Ask yourself what rate is good for you? Whatever happens to the euro rate, the future is out of your control. So forget trying to guess the market and instead ask yourself: ‘Would I be happy to get a rate of €1.26 for my holiday money…?’ If your answer is: “It’s a decent rate, I could have a reasonable holiday on that, and my real fear is it getting worse because that’d make things unaffordable” – then go safe and buy now. However if you do that and the pound strengthens, and in hindsight you’d have been better off waiting, don’t let the bitterness ruin your holiday. For those stuck on what to do, there are a couple of halfway houses. To hedge your bets, simply buy half of what you’ll need now (using the methods below) and leave half until after the referendum. For another possible alternative, see the trick I’ve added at the end of this blog. (Or see the trick below for another halfway house.) Personally I don’t do speculation. Instead, I just ensure I always get the best rates on the day. The easy way to do this is with bureau busting, specialist travel credit cards. The two top picks right now are Halifax Clarity and Creation Everyday, which give near perfect exchange rates in every country, so just pocketing one means you know you’re getting a good deal. Though you do need to pay them off IN FULL each month to minimise interest. Then if you’re really cool, funky and, ahem, down with the kids, like me, you can put them in your overseas wallet.
Following major world events we have historically had a flurry of questions asking if this is a good/bad time to invest/disinvest/change allocations. The answer, as above, is that nobody knows. When it comes to planning your personal finances and investing, you should remember this proverb:
The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now.
"I can't recall ever once having seen the name of a market timer on Forbes' annual list of the richest people in the world. If it were truly possible to predict corrections, you'd think somebody would have made billions by doing it."
Warren Buffett, the sage of Omaha:
"We continue to make more money when snoring than when active." "The only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good."
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So, you heard about Forex and thought it sounded good, huh? First question before we go any further, are you sure? The Forex markets can be very lucrative and trading a very rewarding skill to acquire, but it’s not all glitz and glam. Forex trading can be hard. Any sort of trading can be hard and Forex may well be one of the tougher ones. Forex day trading, especially, can have a very steep and expensive learning curve. When deciding to learn Forex trading, if you are to be ultimately successful you are making a commitment to learn to do something that statistically speaking, extremely few people can do. Many fail in Forex. Most bomb out within the first 6 - 12 months. I ran into Forex with many hopes and expectations only to crash headlong into a wall of frustration and hard lessons. It has taken me many, many chart hours, study, disappointments, failures and embarrassments to get to where I am now in trading and I still know there are various areas in which I can vastly improve and need to continue to work to do so. You’re still reading. Good. You may be cut out for this. Let’s talk about what Forex is. Forex is short for Foreign Exchange market. It is the exchange rates between currencies. If you have ever travelled and exchanged your local currency for your holiday destinations currency, you have done a Forex trade. The rates between these currencies exchange at is always fluctuating. Five days a week, 24 hours a day, traders speculate on the direction of these fluctuations. As a Forex trader, that is what you are doing. There are two different ways traders can make their analysis to decide the trades they will make in the Forex markets. One is called technical analysis and the other is called fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis is what you may think of traders being, if you are new and just peering into the Forex industry. You may picture people following all the economic reports very closely, knowing to the fifth decimal point how much a global economy is producing, what it’s debts are and closely following monetary policy. Fundamental analysis is used in Forex, and some big fundamental events everyone tends to know about but it is commonly overshadowed in Forex by technical analysis. Technical analysis is chart reading. Looking for specific patterns that repeat over time that you can develop strategies around. So it is fair to say that for most Forex traders, what you will be doing if you become a Forex trader is spending a lot of time learning about the different chart patterns and the theory and psychology behind them and how you may be able to make reads on the market based on them. Your first step is to set up a demo account. This will let you trade with monopoly money. You will not be risking anything and you will be able to get used to the process of placing trades, sizing your positions so you know how much you are risking in your trades and starting to get the hang of assessing the charts and getting to grips with the core concepts of trading. Now see; Setting up a demo trading account. (link to be added) Learning the basics and core concepts of trading. (link to be added) Setting up a live trading account. (link to be added)
Planning to go live stock trading after getting the strategies set and placed from demo accounts and experience from Forex trading. Question is, which broker is the best to go for blue chips trading here in PH?
Sitting at a bar in my hometown over the holidays, i struck up a conversation with the young bartender who was having a slow night. We talked of life, love, boobies, and...forex. When the conversation turned to future ambitions he dropped the "F bomb" and his eyes lit up green as he passionately explained what forex was. To be honest, i didn't understand half the lingo he was spewing and my interest in the subject was dwindling. Then he brought out the numbers. Holy shit the numbers. On a bar order he showed me how he was going to go from $2000 to $9999999999999 in a number of years. I was getting pretty drunk at this point as the service was lag free when talking to the man. "If it was this easy" i slurred, "why isn't everyone doing this?" He explained to me that everyone in European Land was doing it. He explained he learned the Secrets from a prison Bazillionare who didn't pay his taxes. He told me about his 15 pip system (what is a pip?) and the magic of compounding profits. The bar was getting vibrant again and our conversation got choppy. Between the shots of fireball my buddies were buying me and the game of pool i was crushing at the conversation stopped. I don't remember when we left but i never said goodbye before stumbling out the door. I woke up feeling FANTASTIC the next day...ughhhh....and had to entertain my girl. In fact I had to visit with family and a few more friends. I did not even have time to think about Forex and went back to my holiday, delusion free. When i returned home i realized i spent WAY too much money on my holiday. Money, money, money. I wish i was rich. I need to be rich. Rich. Forex. What was that guy talking about? Billions? I could use some bilions. I tapped my IPhone and searched "4X" and eventually found a broker. Woahhhhh slow down, buddy. It's called forex and i bet there is a subreddit for this. Yep! I mean there is a subreddit for dragons banging cars. I didn't understand half the posts until i came across a post promoting babypips. I was going to need a computer and a couple beers for this one. I read ALL of babypips in one sitting. Granted throughout i was becoming aware of how much studying i was going to need to understand everything but i was getting my feet wet. I learned what a pip, candlestick, R and S levels, money management, and all that fun was. A WORLD was opening up to me and it was COMPLICATED. I was fascinated. I was impatient. I wanted to trade now! I mean, i just had to beat the spread, right? I opened a demo account on Fxtrade and watched as the charts loaded up. I had a full blown erection at this point. THIS IS SO COOL. Everything was moving so fast. I KNOW WHAT THAT IS. OOOO A DOJI! LOOK AT ALL THE PIPS!!!!!! At this point you are probably asking how much REAL money i lost. I'm sorry to disappoint you, you sad sad sadistic man. I are smart. At this point i realized mid boner how little i knew. I wanted to read charts, learn the candles, and check out the news. I felt the need to wear a suit as looked at Bloomberg and tickers. THIS WORLD IS AWESOME. I <3 FOREX! I decided to reward myself for the HOURS of studying i put in. Hours, ha. I was going to take my demo account and guess the market. I wanted to trade so bad and its just pretend money so yea, it's just pretend money. The next 4 hours of my life I got VERY possessive about that pretend money. I was yelling, biting my nails, jumping up and down. Oh, this was the fear and greed aspect people were talking about. WHY DOES IT KEEP GOING DOWN! My pips! My babies!!! At the end of 4 hours i was down 400 dollars!! I slammed my laptop shut and buried my head in my hands. I am such a shitty trader! Why couldn't i guess the market! Oh....that is right, i was gambling and you know what? I bet with a thousand more hours of studying i would still be gambling. I bet the gambling never stops. I have so much to learn and so much chart time ahead of me. This is not a get rich quick scheme. Hell, i am convinced you can't get rich without rainman powers and a zillion dollars of starting capital. It's fun, it's exciting, and it's a whole new world that has just opened up to me. So, if you are brand new like me to this world like me take heed to what i learned in my whirlwind introduction and don't be delusional.
You are gambling, even with a strategy
There is a 99.9999999999% chance you won't get rich
You are not rainman
Learn Forex because it's fun and exciting, not to get rich (see #2)
I look forward to learning from this community and i'm beyond excited to dive deeper into this world.Thanks for all the posts that are already here and thanks for the ones you have yet to write. People like me NEED to read them. Bring on the (demo) pips!
How I use Volatility to my advantage (UK US open, late US etc)
[Only applies to M30 and lower] What is volatility? Volatility is the degree of variation in price of a given asset on a defined timeframe. When price moves quickly, market volatility increases. When price consolidates, market volatility decreases (simple definition). It is like the speedometer in our cars. I usually add an Average True Range (ATR) on my charts to gauge approximately market volatility or market nervousness. However, it is not necessary, when you look at a chart you are able to tell if price is spiking, trending or consolidating. Volatility is part of any strategy. It gives an expectancy toward future price action. In general, when market volatility is low, we expect significant support and resistance levels to hold price in a range. And when market volatility is high, we expect price to break these levels. Volatility patterns Fortunately, in the Forex market, daily volatility is predictable. We tend to see volatility peaks around major markets openings, which are the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the Japanese Exchange. At the late hours of these markets, volatility tends to decrease. These fundamental patterns are the most exploitable patterns in the Forex market. Yes, at least more exploitable than deceitful technical signals you are looking for. And they happen almost every day. However, there are exceptions. For example, we do not expect volatility peak to happen when countries of these big markets are on bank holiday. EURUSD hourly volatility The chart above shows the 4-weeks hourly volatility for the EUUSD pair. It is the average in pip of the difference between the highest and the lowest price of each hour of the day, over four weeks. Each bar represents the average in hourly range over four weeks. There are two major peaks corresponding to the LSE and the NYSE openings. Since the EUUSD is the most traded pair, we consider its volatility as "market volatility". In fact, the hourly volatility chart of the other pairs gives approximately the same pattern. USDCAD hourly volatility These charts were taken in May 2016. Take a look at Mataf.net’s volatility tool and type four (for four weeks) in the entry box. You will see approximately this same pattern in hourly volatility, with the two major peaks (UK and US opens) and decreasing volatility starting from the mid-US session. (Currently the pattern is disturbed by the brexit monster volatility, it will become clear again within few weeks) We also have decreased volatility during the Asian session when there is no major news release coming from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) or the Bank Of Japan (BOJ). Asian sessions These charts tell us market volatility is predictable. This leads us to define two principles: First Principle: Around major markets openings (active time), market volatility tends to surge. We expect to see range breakouts, spikes or rallies. It is the best time to trade breakouts i.e., buying new highs and selling new lows. Second Principle: During the late hours of major markets sessions and when major markets are closed (quiet time), market volatility tends to decrease considerably. We expect to see trading range or congestion in price action. It is the best time to range-trade i.e., buying the lows and selling the highs. principles Any trading strategy or system has to adapt to these variations in volatility to perform over time. If you are struggling with a particular strategy, maybe you are ignoring these changes in volatility. How volatility patterns can help in improving your trading? One cannot apply a strategy any time and expect to be profitable. When we simulate an automated and intraday trading system over three months without time filtering, we will notice the system is only profitable at certain hours of the day. This simply reflects intraday volatility variations. You have to determine if your trading strategy is a trend following method or a range trading one. If your strategy is a trend following approach, you will want to only trade around major markets openings to maximize profits. Otherwise, you will tend to give back profits as price slows down in the mid-session and market volatility decrease. If your strategy is a range trading or reversal approach, you will want to only trade during quiet market time and avoid trading around market openings or around news releases. Less trades maximize profits. Most of my trading sessions last less than one hour. I made a portable document of this.
Dow Jones Dow Jones index reached a new record level raised by the growth in the industrial sector, including a record high of Boeing. The S&P 500 finished off with a slight increase, Nasdaq recorded losses as several large technology companies were in decline. Cryptocurrency The cryptocurrency market was seen lower in recent years. Bitcoin fell by more than 1.8%, dropping below $ 6500. Of the 10 main cryptocurrencies, XRP recorded the greatest losses, falling by more than 8%. Asia Nikkei and Hang Seng indices recorded losses. Markets in China were closed due to a national holiday. Amazon Amazon announced an increase in the minimum wage paid. The new minimum wage of $ 15 per hour is more than twice the federal minimum wage of $ 7.25. Forex The popular US dollar index strengthened the trend for the fifth day in a row. The ICE US dollar index traded at 95.731 and then dropped to 95.515, which is 0.2% more than the same day. The euro, which is the most influential component of the dollar index, is the predominant history, and the general currency fluctuation against the backdrop of political uncertainty in Italy. Oil Crude oil for November delivery ended seven cents, or 0.09%, down $ 75.23 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, noting the second largest closing value of the year. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 0.2%, down $ 84.80 per barrel. Both oil tests closed almost 3% higher than Monday, while the US benchmark reached a four-year high of $ 75.30 a barrel. Europe FTSE opened 2 points higher, DAX climbed 7 points, and CAC opened 6 points higher. Read more: https://www.facebook.com/294693984421347/photos/a.295490831008329/329333027624109/ https://preview.redd.it/elyo6zj7r4q11.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=886d81e62808a6bde6092a20b2eaaaeab1e97c74
One of the most important aspects when trading binary options is to know when to trade the market. Even though trading on foreign exchange options, stock options, commodity options and index options is available 24 -hours a Day, five days a week, not every hour or minute is worth trading. There are different hours during the day and different days of the week which see more volume and liquidity than others, resulting in high volatility and opportunities to maximize trading. Efects of timing As a binary options trader, you proft when you correctly predict the direction of an asset price. Volatility is therefore essential to maximize the chances of you increasing your return on investment. Studies have shown that the most active trading hours occur during the European session. In the US, trading activity picks up sharply around 8:30 am EST. this is due to the release of closely watched US economic data, which generates the liquidity and volatility needed for the underlying asset to reach its target price before the option expires. Prices become most volatile when the US releases its monthly non-farm payrolls report on the frst Friday of every month. In contrast, markets will be less active and liquid during major holidays in the US and Europe, resulting in subdued trade. Best days of the week There are days that see more volatility and price action than others. According to The research, Tuesday and Wednesday are considered to be the most active trading days of the week. Friday is also recognized as a high-volatility trading day, especially during the hours when European and US trading sessions overlap. During the second half of the day, price movements can be very unpredictable. Learn More Most forex traders are more successful during the late US, Asian or early European trading sessions – essentially 2 PM to 6 AM Eastern Time (New York), which is 7 PM to 11 AM UK time
Forex Trading: Most Popular and Money Making Trading in this Era.
Forex is an acronym of Forex Exchange and Forex trading is one sort of trading currencies from different countries against all others in online Forex trading market. It designates buying one currency whereas selling another currency at the same time. It is conducted over the counter also. This market is open 24 hours a day (five days in a week without two weekly holidays). It is one of the biggest online financial markets in the earth. Throughout this trading, a trader can trade national currencies with a view to trying and making a profit within very short time frame. To initiate forex trading successfully, some important elements are intensively needed to know and utilize and those are mentioned below. Forex Trading Broker Forex trading broker is the platform where the Forex traders can set up their trade smoothly and easily. Broker acts as the host of the trading to continue trading. Furthermore, to set up trading with a collection of available currencies, traders are supposed to decide a dependable Forex trading broker. On the whole, to be a successful trader, a fair broker is greatly preferred. Forex Trading Account No account, no trade. All types of trading can be directed and maintained by Forex trading account and the account has been formed by the brokerage houses also. Throughout the accounts, traders can retain their trading. Regarding the account, demo account is very important also. It makes the traders perfect and experienced before executing real trading. All the traders should practice demo account before starting real trading on the basis of real account. Types of Account There are two types of Forex trading accounts available in the Forex trading market that helps the traders to execute the trade and these are given below:
Lot in Forex Trading Market A lot determines to a bundle of units in Forex trading marketplace. It finds out the extent of the trade that traders are making in trading market. In Forex trading, a micro lot is equaled to 1/100th of a lot or 1000 units of the fundamental currency. So, a micro lot characteristically is the smallest position extent that trader can trade with. The following are the quantities essentially used in the Forex trading marketplace:
A standard forex trading lot =100,000 unites of base currency in the Forex market.
A mini lot = 10,000 unites of base currency in the Forex trading market.
A micro lot = 1,000 unites of base currency in the Forex trading market.
A nano lot = 100 unites of base currency in the Forex trading market
Volume in Forex Trading Market Volume is an essential part of Forex trading world. In essence, volume is the amount of shares in entire market throughout a specified phase of time. Major Currency Pair At the time of carrying out trade, a trader has to prefer a currency pair that trader anticipates to modify in value and place regarding the trade chronologically. A number of important currencies are used to deal with currency pairs. Essentially, there are four major currencies pairs are incredibly popular and regular in the Forex trading market for example:
USD and Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
Euro and USD (EUUSD)
British pound and USD (GBP/USD)
USD and Japanese Yes (USD/JPY)
Forex Leverage Trading Forex leveraged trading is very much cooperative requirement for the trader. Forex leveraged trading is one of the input remunerates at the back trading Forex. It refers to trader as border, permits the trader to arrive at an enormous disclosure to the markets for comparatively a minimal starting deposit. Throughout this option, a trader can acquire loan from the broker. It determines how much loan a trader can obtain from the brokers. Risks also involved in the Forex Trading Market It is highly pointed out that Forex trading is not only connected to earning extremely but also it has vast risk. Consequently, if the traders do not maintain the trade correctly, they must fall into hazard and their account will have to zero. Furthermore, without calculating the marketplace logically, emotion and excitement can destroy traders’ successes. Pipette Pipettes are smaller than a pip. Fundamentally, 1 pip = 10 pipettes. Pipettes are premeditated as smallest in terms of price faction. Pip is made up of pipettes. For instance, 10 pipettes conclude one pip. It is usual unit at the time of trading. It is the one-tenth of pip or unit. In fact, pipette value = the value modify in counter currency times the exchange rate ratio times the component of currency traded. In this way, pipette value = the value change in counter currency times the trade rate ratio times the unit of money traded. Pip Pip is a vital component of Forex trading. A pip is made up of 10 pipettes and it resolves one pip. On the whole, it is an exclusive of amount used by traders to reveal vary in value or price between trader’s currency pairs. Essentially, a pip is the smallest amount price move that a detailed exchange rate makes based on trading market regulation. In fact, 10 pipettes = 1 pip. A pip of Forex trading varies depending on how a known currency pair is traded. It is also possible but rare to value in half-pip increments. Spread in the Forex Trading Like pip, the spread determines the difference between the buying and the selling price. These two values are specified for a currency pair. In addition, the spread characterizes the discrepancy between what the marketplace maker gives buying from a Forex trader and what the market maker takes selling to a trader. Scam in Forex Trading Scam or fraud brokers are very much hazardous for the traders. It can cheat you and your valuable capital. The broker should be official and legal. Before creating a Forex trading account, a trader is supposed to analysis and research the broker. It can be done by live chatting, sending SMS and analysis the data of that brokerage house. If complaints are available against the brokers, it is supposed to be left. Even, the brokerage houses have to be popular and admired by the traders.
Desperate, lost all hope of returning my Bitcons, please help or give advise.
I have been mining bitcoins using https://50btc.com/ From march till October 2013, made few test transactions (but all money were stored on my profile there). I have accumulated approximately 9.22 BTC. And then in October they were hacked. Since then I have been trying to restore my account balance with no avail. They only replied once in January 2014
"Hi, Please, be a bit more patient. We have to collect and process a lot of information to make payout queue."
After that no letters from them and no hope from me. I have logs from mining PC's and wallet transactions that show that I am saying the truth (I have sent them as they requested) Sorry if I bothered anyone here with my problem, I am just too desperate now. EDIT1: Sorry for grammar, corrected some info and mistakes. EDIT2: Here is my wallet history with transactions to my wallet (I used only 1 address to receive funds from 50BTC.com) and made only few transactions to buy few cheap things just to try how system works. EDIT3: Will be back in 10 hours to read\answer EDIT4: Thank you for your answers, I guess I was just a naїve fool to trust them, they were one of the most famous and advertised mining pool and even had a pre-reconfigured mining app, so it was easy for me as a novice to start mining. I guess it is a lesson for me, it could be much worse, at least I did lose bitcoins but not additional money (like in pyramid schemes or forex trade) by buying miners and\or server time. I won't give up, maybe I could rise awareness, because there is still hope no matter how faint it is. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you.
Forex Market Hours. See forex market trading hours at a glance. Check at what time forex markets open and close in London, New York, Sydney or Tokyo. Your time zone is adjusted automatically. National bank holidays and weekends are taken into account. Forex Market Hours. Forex Trading is available 24 hours a day from 5:00pm ET Sunday through 5:00pm ET on Friday, including most U.S. holidays. Please be advised of the potential for illiquid market conditions particularly at the open of the trading week. These conditions may result in wider spreads for some currency pairs based on market liquidity. Forex Holidays 2020. If you’re trading on Forex (Stocks), it’s important to know when Forex weekends and National holidays occur. Banks (and forex brokers) would not have full services and benefits. Mostly brokers are also not available on holidays. On Forex holidays you see low liquidity on market. But after the market opening, activity ... The OTC (over-the-counter) nature of the forex market means that trading remains open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. However, major public holidays may affect the overall liquidity of the market. If US or UK banks are closed in observance of a holiday, this will most likely result in a significantly decreased trading volume in the market. In practice, this may result in a more volatile and ... See the opening and closing hours for various markets, and be informed of upcoming bank holidays. MultiBank Group launches zero commission share offering We are pleased to now announce the addition of over 800 share products with zero commissions charged including, but not limited to, Apple, Tesla, Netflix, Microsoft, Baidu, Alibaba, and others. Forex Trading is available 24 hours a day from 9:00pm GMT Sunday through 9:00pm GMT on Friday, including most U.S. holidays. Please be advised of the potential for illiquid market conditions particularly at the open of the trading week. These conditions may result in wider spreads for some currency pairs based on market liquidity. Spot Gold and Silver Market Hours. Spot gold and silver trading ... At the end of the year 2020. trading hours will be changed based on the holiday working schedules. Based on Christmas Trading Hours, on 25. December 2020. and 1. January 2021. will be non-working days for hotforex broker, and trading will be closed on those days. On 31. December 2020. trading will be closed a few hours earlier because of the ...
The Easiest Forex STRATEGY! You must watch! 🙄 - YouTube
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